How Much Should My Solar Panels Produce Each Month?

One of the most common questions solar homeowners ask is "how much should my system produce?" The answer depends on several factors, and understanding them helps you know if you're getting the return on investment you were promised.

The Basic Formula

A rough rule of thumb: a 1 kW solar system produces about 4 kWh per day on average in the US. So a 6 kW system should produce roughly 24 kWh/day, or about 720 kWh/month. But this varies enormously by location and season.

Location Matters — A Lot

A 6 kW system in Phoenix, AZ might produce 900+ kWh/month in summer. The same system in Seattle, WA might produce 400 kWh/month. The difference comes down to solar irradiance — how much sunlight actually hits your panels.

Seasonal Swings Are Normal

In most US locations, your summer production will be 2-3x your winter production. This is completely normal. Don't panic if January production looks low — compare it to what's expected for January in your area.

How SolarDoctor Helps

SolarDoctor uses NREL's PVWatts data (the gold standard for solar production estimates) combined with your system's actual specs and location to calculate exactly what your system should produce each month. Then we compare that to what it actually produced and give you a health score from 0-100.

A score of 90-110 means your system is healthy. Below 75 means something needs attention.